Recovery is a complicated economic pattern, in that some economic indicators increase while others may stay low or even decrease. Much of what happens during a recovery may be a result of intangibles, such as consumer confidence or the perception of businesses that things will get better. Tentative marketers take serious risks. Premature marketers may face dire consequences.
For marketers, an important task is to attempt to determine how quickly the economy will move into a situation of prosperity. Improper forecasting can lead some firms to overextend themselves, as consumers may be slow to change purchase habits they have been accustomed to in the more difficult economic times.
The economy is cyclical in nature. We know that the cycles will occur. We just cannot predict exactly when or how severe the cycles will be. Assumptions must be made about money, people, and resources. For example, many organizations become less aggressive when they believe the economy is not going to grow. If they are right, they may do well. If they are wrong, those organizations that are more aggressive can perform very well often at the expense of the conservative organizations. Assumptions must also be made about such economic factors as interest rates, inflation, the nature and size of the workforce, and the availability of resources such as energy and raw materials.
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