You are here

Will the progress continue?

20 January, 2016 - 15:30

The exponential improvement we have seen in hardware has enabled the invention of new software and applications. If this improvement and innovation continues, it will have profound effects on individuals, organizations and society. But, will the progress continue?

At some point, physical limits cause exponential hardware improvement to level off. Today, semiconductor companies are mass producing chips with a feature size of 65 nanometers (billionths of a meter), and that is expected to drop to 22 nanometers by 2011. 1 Halving feature size every two years after that would imply transistors the size of a single atom around 2033. Clearly, the current technology will reach physical limits before that time. Does that mean that exponential improvement in electronic technology will end? Not necessarily, since we may shift to a different technology.

The logic circuits of the earliest programmable computers were constructed using electromechanical relays. Those gave way to vacuum tubes, which gave way to discrete transistors then integrated circuits. As we approach the limits of current electronic technology, we may see a shift to something else, perhaps three-dimensional fabrication or growing of organic logic devices. We have seen similar progression in storage and communication technology. During the computer era, we have used punched cards and paper tape, magnetic tape, drums and disks, optical disks and electronic storage. Communication technologies have also shifted from the time of the direct-current telegraph to today’s multi-wavelength optical links.

As we reach the end of the exponential growth period of a given technology, entrepreneurs and inventors have increased incentive to find replacements. But, what if we hit a double dead end? What if we reach the limits of IT technology and fail to find a replacement?

That is a possibility, but many argue that it is unlikely. Consider, for example, inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil 2 who predicts continued exponential improvement in information and other technologies far into the future. 3 He notes that new information technologies like writing, mathematical notation, printing, computers, and computer networks accelerate learning and the accumulation of knowledge.

The global distribution of research also gives us reason to be optimistic. Much of largess we are reaping today is rooted in research. Modern personal computers, computer networks, and applications conceived of and prototyped decades ago. For example, Ivan Sutherland, shown here, used a room sized “personal computer” to develop very early image processing software. There have been many hardware and software refinements in the ensuing years, but a modern personal computer running a graphic design program is an obvious descendent of Sutherland’s Sketchpad program.

media/image20.png
Figure 7.17 Ivan Sutherland operating his Sketchpad graphic design program in 1963 
 

Much of the research underlying today’s hardware and software took place in the United States. Today, important research is taking place in many nations. As technology reaches developing nations with unique problems and ways of seeing the world, we will see even more innovation – they will think outside our boxes.

Internet resource:

Listen to Ray Kurzweil’s presentation of his view of exponential improvement in technology and knowledge in a talk at the Technology Entertainment and Design Conference.