Most projects have something unexpected occur that increases costs above the original estimates. If estimates are rarely exceeded, the estimating method should be reviewed because the estimates are too high. It is impossible to predict which activities will cost more than expected, but it is reasonable to assume that some of them will. Estimating the likelihood of such events is part of risk analysis, which is discussed in more detail in a later chapter.
Instead of overestimating each cost, money is budgeted for dealing with unplanned but statistically predictable cost increases. Funds allocated for this purpose are called contingency reserves. Because it is likely that this money will be spent, it is part of the total budget for the project. If this fund is adequate to meet the unplanned expenses, then the project will complete within the budget.
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