Predicting the risk of disease involves screening and identifying currently healthy individuals by genome analysis at the individual level. Intervention with lifestyle changes and drugs can be recommended before disease onset. However, this approach is most applicable when the problem arises from a single gene mutation. Such defects only account for about 5 percent of diseases found in developed countries. Most of the common diseases, such as heart disease, are multifactorial or polygenic, which refers to a phenotypic characteristic that is determined by two or more genes, and also environmental factors such as diet. In April 2010, scientists at Stanford University published the genome analysis of a healthy individual (Stephen Quake, a scientist at Stanford University, who had his genome sequenced); the analysis predicted his propensity to acquire various diseases. A risk assessment was done to analyze Quake’s percentage of risk for 55 different medical conditions. A rare genetic mutation was found that showed him to be at risk for sudden heart attack. He was also predicted to have a 23 percent risk of developing prostate cancer and a 1.4 percent risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease. The scientists used databases and several publications to analyze the genomic data. Even though genomic sequencing is becoming more affordable and analytical tools are becoming more reliable, ethical issues surrounding genomic analysis at a population level remain to be addressed. For example, could such data be legitimately used to charge more or less for insurance or to affect credit ratings?
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